Gold Price Outlook 2025: At Record Highs, Should You Buy, Sell, or Wait? Expert Views

Gold has once again reached record highs, leaving investors with a critical question—should they buy more, book profits, or wait for a correction? With global uncertainty, expectations of US Federal Reserve rate cuts, and strong investor demand, bullion prices are shining brighter than ever. Adding to the momentum, India’s festive and wedding season is set to boost demand further.

So, what’s the right move for investors now? Let’s break down the expert insights.

Gold Rally: What’s Driving the Surge?

According to Manav Modi, Analyst at Precious Metals Research, the ongoing gold rally has been “extraordinary.” He points out that over the past year, gold has delivered returns of more than 40%, while silver has outperformed even further in 2025.

Two major factors are fueling this uptrend:

• US Tariff Policy Uncertainty: President Donald Trump’s shifting trade policies have spooked markets, prompting a rush to safe-haven assets.

• Fed Rate Cut Expectations: The US Federal Reserve has signaled possible rate cuts this month, which traditionally supports gold prices as lower interest rates reduce the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets.

Time for Profit Booking?

While the fundamentals remain strong, experts warn that the sharp rally also increases the risk of profit-taking. Modi advises existing investors to consider partial profit booking:

“Gold’s fundamentals are still pointing upward. But given the length of the rally, profit-taking cannot be ruled out. New investors should wait for a dip before entering.”

He highlights that ₹1,03,000–₹1,03,500 per 10 grams could be an attractive buying zone, with upside targets of ₹1,08,000–₹1,09,000. For silver, a strong entry point is around ₹1,18,000 per kg, with potential to rise toward ₹1,30,000–₹1,35,000.

Short-Term Triggers to Watch

Jatin Trivedi, VP – Research (Commodities & Currencies) at LKP Securities, notes that markets will closely track US non-farm payrolls and unemployment data due next week. These reports, combined with Fed’s policy direction, will likely dictate the short-term trajectory for gold.

• Weak labor data → strengthens the case for rate cuts → bullish for gold.

• Strong labor data → reduces pressure on Fed to cut → possible price cooling.

Festive Season Buyers Face a Dilemma

On September 3, 2025, gold surged to ₹1,06,200 per 10 grams for standard 24K gold, while 22K jewelry-grade gold crossed ₹97,400. Silver climbed to ₹1,27,000 per kg, rising ₹900 in a single day.

For families planning wedding or festive jewelry purchases, the high prices pose a challenge. Despite elevated levels, jewelers report steady demand. Modi suggests buyers wait for even a small dip:

“Even a correction of ₹1,000–₹1,500 from current levels can present a good entry opportunity for retail buyers.”

Import Rules to Keep in Mind

For those returning from abroad, gold import regulations matter:

• Male passengers can bring up to 20 grams (worth ₹50,000) duty-free.

• Female passengers can carry up to 40 grams (worth ₹1,00,000) duty-free.

• Non-Resident Indians (NRIs) staying abroad for more than a year may bring up to 1 kg of gold, but duty must be paid.

Failing to comply may result in confiscation at customs, especially for bars and coins.

Expert Takeaway: Hold, Book, or Buy?

• Current Holders: Consider partial profit booking, then re-enter on dips.

• New Investors: Patience is key—wait for a correction before buying.

• Long-Term Investors: Gold remains a hedge against global uncertainty and inflation; staying invested makes sense.

✅ Bottom Line: Gold’s dazzling rally is backed by strong fundamentals, but with prices at record highs, restraint is essential. A short-term dip could open better entry points for new buyers, while existing investors can lock in profits without exiting completely.