Major European and NATO country bracing for pro-Putin coalition ahead of crunch election

On Thursday, the Baltic state of Lithuania officially began proceedings for choosing a new candidate for its prime minister. A vote on appointing Inga Ruginien - a trade unionist and politician of the Lithuanian Social Democratic Party (LSDP) - to head the government must take place by next Tuesday (August 26). However, before that can occurr, the ruling LSDP must decide on its coalition partners.

Unfortunately for Ukraine, which has enjoyed unwavering and multifaceted support from Lithuania since 2014, it is highly likely that the new coalition will include an openly pro-Russian party. The party's representatives have called for the lifting of sanctions on Russia and Belarus, and even for bombing Kyiv. In late July, Lithuania was shaken by a political scandal when PM Gintautas Paluckas resigned after just seven and a half months in office. The resignation followed a series of corruption scandals involving him and his family, with the final straw being the withdrawal of support by the centre-left coalition partner, The Union of Democrats "For Lithuania".

Mathematically, the coalition does not require a third participant. The Social Democrats and the populists from Dawn of Nemunas together have 72 mandates - 71 are needed for a majority, European Pravda reports. However, such a majority looks fragile, so the need for a third participant remains. Only one political force has declared such readiness - the party Union of Farmers and Greens of Lithuania.

Currently, the reputation of this left-wing party is significantly tarnished by the leadership of oligarch Ramnas Karbauskis.

After the elections, the parliamentary faction of the Farmers united with deputies from the Electoral Action of Poles in Lithuania - Christian Families Alliance (EAPL-CFA party) - the most pro-Russian political force in Lithuania. Its leader, Waldemar Tomaszewski, has insisted that if his party joins the coalition, it will only lobby for social initiatives. However, it is unlikely that they would remain silent during the discussion of foreign policy issues.

One representative of this party, Zbigniew Jedliski, called on NATO in 2014 to bomb Kyiv in order to make Ukraine more compliant with Russia's demands.

"I support Ukraine in its struggle until victory. There can be no other way," said the LSDP candidate Inga Ruginien immediately after being nominated for the post of prime minister.

Lithuania firmly supports Ukraine against Russian aggression. This support is demonstrated through its substantial financial and humanitarian aid (€90 million as of March 2024), active contributions to international initiatives like Ukraine's integration into the EU and NATO and a history of solidarity with Ukraine's people. For example, the country has become a major host for Ukrainian refugees. By late 2025, Lithuania's military aid to Ukraine reached €1 billion, according to a May 2025 report.

Once a member of the Soviet Union until 1991, Lithuania views Russia's actions as a threat to its sovereignty and sees supporting Ukraine as crucial for both regional stability and its own freedom.

Lithuania shares a border with both Belarus and the small Russian exclave of Kaliningrad, and has set out plans to defend itself in the event of an invasion. The nation has developed a 30-mile-deep defensive plan, including minefields and bridge primed with demolitions. Together with its neighbours, Latvia and Estonia, a "Baltic defence line" will stretch across the three countries from Kaliningrad in the west to the mouth of the River Narva in the east. Consisting of around 1,000 concrete bunkers, anti-tank ditches and logistical supply lines, the line aims to better prevent the three countries, with a 600-mile border with Russia, from suffering a similar fate to Ukraine.