Can Donald Trump win the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize? Here's what bookmakers are saying

Peace, like politics, thrives on timing — and Donald Trump ’s timing has always been impeccable. On October 8, 2025, just weeks before Nobel season, the American president unveiled what he called a “historic breakthrough”: a US-brokered Gaza ceasefire between Israel and Hamas . The deal, which includes a 40-day truce, hostage exchanges, and phased Israeli troop withdrawals, was presented as proof that Trump’s brand of “America First diplomacy” could do what decades of traditional negotiation could not.

Almost instantly, betting markets lit up. Trump’s odds for the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize surged, placing him alongside global humanitarian figures and grassroots movements. For a man who once complained that Barack Obama “got his Nobel too soon,” the symbolism was irresistible — Trump could finally claim the prize he believes the world owes him.

But the Nobel Committee doesn’t run on headlines, and Oslo isn’t Vegas.

The odds so far

Across betting markets, Trump’s name now sits near the top of the board — though the numbers vary by platform.

• Oddspedia lists his chances around 13 percent.
• Oddschecker places him between 17/2 and 6/1, or roughly 10–14 percent.
• MyBettingSites recently adjusted him to 7/1 (12.5 percent) after the Gaza truce announcement.
• Sportsbook Review had him as high as +210 (32 percent) earlier this year.

Bookmakers, of course, are not prophets. Their odds reflect media hype, betting volume, and public fascination, not any insider knowledge of the Nobel Committee’s decision. Still, the speculation underscores Trump’s ability to dominate narratives — whether in politics, war, or peace.

The Gaza deal and its stakes

The ceasefire plan, negotiated with Qatari and Egyptian mediation, marks Trump’s boldest diplomatic move since returning to power. The framework reportedly includes:

• A 40-day ceasefire monitored by international observers;
• Prisoner and hostage exchanges supervised by the UN;
• A gradual Israeli withdrawal from key zones in Gaza;
• A reconstruction fund led by Gulf states with US oversight.

The White House has called it “a new chapter for the Middle East.” Trump’s supporters have gone further, dubbing it “Abraham Accords 2.0.”

Yet on the ground, optimism remains fragile. Reuters and The Guardian have reported deep divisions within both Israel’s coalition and Hamas’s leadership, with hardliners accusing each other of betrayal. Analysts warn that the truce could collapse under the weight of internal politics — something Oslo is keenly aware of. The Nobel Committee has been burned before by awarding peace prizes that aged badly.

How the Nobel process actually works

The Norwegian Nobel Committee receives over 300 nominations each year from approved nominators such as legislators, academics, and past laureates.

• The nomination deadline for the 2025 prize was January 31, 2025.
• The selection process is entirely confidential and lasts several months.
• The winner will be announced in early October.

Because the Gaza deal was signed after the deadline, it cannot influence the 2025 decision. If the ceasefire endures and transforms the regional landscape, it could bolster Trump’s case for the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize, but not this year’s.

What experts and historians say
Despite the betting frenzy, Nobel observers remain sceptical.

• A Nobel historian told Omni that awarding Trump this year is “excluded,” arguing that the Committee “rewards sustained peacebuilding, not momentary deals.”
• The Washington Post noted that while Trump’s fans frame him as a dealmaker, “the Nobel Committee’s record shows a distaste for unilateralism and self-promotion.”
• Analysts quoted by Associated Press said that although Trump’s Gaza diplomacy may be significant, “any credible Nobel recognition would require years of verified stability.”

Meanwhile, Malta’s foreign minister formally nominated Trump for the Nobel Peace Prize, citing his “efforts in the Middle East and the Caucasus.” But such symbolic gestures are mostly political theatre, with little bearing on the Committee’s deliberations.

Why it matters
Trump’s Nobel speculation fits neatly into his political narrative. He has long presented himself as the ultimate dealmaker — a leader who solves conflicts through personality and pressure. The Gaza ceasefire, if it holds, would give that claim rare substance.

Yet the Nobel Peace Prize has historically rewarded collective, enduring work rather than singular acts of diplomacy. When Barack Obama received it in 2009 — barely nine months into his first term — even the Committee later admitted it was “aspirational.” Since then, it has avoided overtly political awards, preferring causes such as climate action, press freedom, and women’s rights movements.

That institutional memory works against Trump.

The big picture

• Betting markets favour visibility, not viability. Trump’s odds rise with every headline, not with Oslo’s deliberations.
• The Gaza deal is real but precarious. Without long-term enforcement, it may not meet Nobel criteria.
• The Committee prizes continuity over charisma. It rewards persistence and moral leadership, not media spectacle.
• If the truce endures, Trump could become a credible contender for the 2026 prize — but not before.

Bottom line

Donald Trump’s Gaza diplomacy has changed the conversation, but not the calculus. The Nobel Committee moves slowly, values humility, and distrusts theatrics — three traits rarely associated with Trump.

For now, he remains the bookmakers’ favourite, not the Committee’s choice — a man chasing a peace prize that was never designed for presidents who demand it.