The recent deadly clashes between Pakistan and the Taliban along their shared border signal a major shift in Islamabad's approach towards a group that it had hoped would become an ally in its larger fight against India.
Far from becoming a partner, the Taliban has now emerged as the single-biggest threat to Pakistan's security.
With Pakistan launching strikes inside Taliban-held Afghan territory and the Taliban responding with attacks on Pakistani outposts and armored tanks, analysts suggest that Pakistan is attempting to establish a 'new normal' in its dealings with the Taliban.
This evolving posture strikingly echoes India's decisive stance against Pakistan following Operation Sindoor earlier this year.
What triggered deadly Af-Pak clashes
In the past few weeks, Pakistan has carried out targeted strikes in Kabul and other Taliban-controlled areas after a series of violent attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan ( TTP ) on Pakistani territory.
The Pakistan Taliban is independent of Afghanistan 's Taliban, but the two groups are ideologically aligned.
Islamabad blames Kabul for giving sanctuary to TTP leaders, as well as other groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and ISIL (ISIS) affiliate in Khorasan Province, or ISKP.
TTP attacks have increased sharply since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, and numbers highlight the increasing trend.
Data show that the TTP engaged in at least 600 attacks against, or clashes with, security forces in the past year alone. Its activity in 2025 so far already exceeds that seen in all of 2024.
The Centre for Research and Security Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, put the number of deaths of Pakistan's security personnel at more than 2,400 in the first three quarters of this year, which is on track to become the deadliest year in a decade.
Zero tolerance: The 'new normal'
The recent strikes by Pakistan mark a departure from its often ambivalent or covert stance toward Taliban activities.
By crossing into Afghan soil to target militants, Pakistan appears intent on sending a clear warning: any future terrorist operations originating from Afghanistan targeting Pakistan will provoke direct retaliatory action.
This approach seeks to establish a new baseline in Pakistan-Taliban relations — a 'new normal' where Pakistan asserts its sovereignty and security interests proactively and visibly.
But analysts are perplexed over Pakistan's ultimate goal with this new hardline approach.
Are the strikes meant to push the Afghan Taliban into action against the TTP? or is there a bigger plan?
Going for regime change?
After the weekend clashes, Pakistan - for the first time - also questioned the legitimacy of the Taliban government, even though Islamabad was the movement's chief patron for a quarter of a century.
Pakistan demanded "concrete and verifiable actions against these terrorist elements by the Taliban regime".
Significantly, it declared: "We also hope that one day, the Afghan people would be emancipated, and they would be governed by a true representative government."
This was the first major hint that Pakistan might be open to the idea of throwing its support behind anti-Taliban groups if the current regime continues to ignore Pakistan's security concerns.
Echoes of India's post-Op Sindoor strategy
This escalating dynamic between Pakistan and the Taliban bears remarkable similarities to the India-Pakistan situation earlier in 2025.
In April, in response to a spate of terrorist attacks orchestrated by Pakistan-based groups, India launched Operation Sindoor. This was a surgical counter-terrorism campaign targeting terror camps across the Line of Control and deeper inside Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.
After the operation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear that cross-border terrorism would no longer be tolerated, signaling a shift from reactive to proactive and offensive counterterrorism measures.
"Terrorism must be crushed at its roots," PM Modi emphasised in key speeches following the operation. He highlighted that India would no longer remain complacent or defensive but take the fight to terrorist safe havens across the border.
This was a stark departure from previous policies that relied primarily on defensive postures and diplomatic protests.
PM Modi's approach sought to create a deterrence framework, warning Pakistan that continued use of terror proxies would only invite more severe repercussions. The impact was significant, forcing Islamabad to recalibrate its own counterterrorism and diplomacy strategies, even if publicly denying Indian claims.
The Centre stressed that India would not hesitate to undertake "pre-emptive" action if future terrorist activities were launched from Pakistani soil. The message to Islamabad was unequivocal: Pakistan must dismantle terror infrastructure or face decisive consequences.
This tough stance surprised many, including Pakistan, which protested vehemently against what it termed India’s "cross-border aggression". Yet PM Modi's approach has widely been seen as a game-changer in South Asian security dynamics, raising the bar for how states respond to terrorism.
Pakistan changing playbook?
Analysts now speculate that Pakistan may be adopting a similar playbook in its handling of the Taliban.
For years, Pakistan's official policy towards the Taliban was one of implicit support or cautious engagement, given their ideological affinities and shared interests to some extent.
However, the recent strikes suggest Pakistan is recalibrating toward a more hardline posture that prioritises national security over ideological sympathies.
One key motivation behind this could be Pakistan's desire to secure its western border more effectively after years of instability and violent spillovers.
With the Taliban in power, Islamabad may see the need to assert dominance and clearly demarcate boundaries that opponents must not cross, even if it means direct military action inside Afghanistan.
This mirrors India's move to push back decisively against terrorism and assert territorial and security integrity.
The impact
If Pakistan truly adopts a stance akin to India's Operation Sindoor doctrine, the implications for regional security could be profound.
It indicates a shift from proxy or indirect conflicts toward more direct and overt military engagements aimed at deterrence. This may result in a recalibrated security architecture where Pakistan no longer tolerates Taliban aggression emanating from Afghan territory, just as India refuses to tolerate terrorism from Pakistan.
However, this approach also risks escalating tensions further. The border clashes have already resulted in casualties on both sides and threaten to spiral into a wider conflict if not managed carefully.
Can Pakistan sustain new approach?
Whether Pakistan can sustain this new posture against the Taliban depends on several factors.
Domestically, it will require strong military and political consensus to justify cross-border actions that risk escalating conflict. There are also challenges in controlling non-state actors within its own borders who may have sympathies with the Taliban or other militant groups.
Externally, Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban is complex, given their historic ties, shared ethnic Pashtun links, and mutual geopolitical interests, including countering Indian influence.
Moving toward a policy of strikes and retribution involves recalibrating these relationships and could alienate influential factions within Pakistan’s security establishment.
The ongoing clashes and Pakistan’s direct strikes raise critical questions about the trajectory of Pakistan-Taliban relations and broader Afghanistan stability. Will this 'new normal' lead to a more disciplined, deterrence-based approach to cross-border militancy? Or will it trigger cyclical escalation?
Far from becoming a partner, the Taliban has now emerged as the single-biggest threat to Pakistan's security.
With Pakistan launching strikes inside Taliban-held Afghan territory and the Taliban responding with attacks on Pakistani outposts and armored tanks, analysts suggest that Pakistan is attempting to establish a 'new normal' in its dealings with the Taliban.
This evolving posture strikingly echoes India's decisive stance against Pakistan following Operation Sindoor earlier this year.
What triggered deadly Af-Pak clashes
In the past few weeks, Pakistan has carried out targeted strikes in Kabul and other Taliban-controlled areas after a series of violent attacks by the Tehrik-i-Taliban Pakistan ( TTP ) on Pakistani territory.
The Pakistan Taliban is independent of Afghanistan 's Taliban, but the two groups are ideologically aligned.
Islamabad blames Kabul for giving sanctuary to TTP leaders, as well as other groups such as the Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA) and ISIL (ISIS) affiliate in Khorasan Province, or ISKP.
TTP attacks have increased sharply since the Taliban returned to power in Afghanistan in August 2021, and numbers highlight the increasing trend.
Data show that the TTP engaged in at least 600 attacks against, or clashes with, security forces in the past year alone. Its activity in 2025 so far already exceeds that seen in all of 2024.
The Centre for Research and Security Studies, an Islamabad-based think tank, put the number of deaths of Pakistan's security personnel at more than 2,400 in the first three quarters of this year, which is on track to become the deadliest year in a decade.
Zero tolerance: The 'new normal'
The recent strikes by Pakistan mark a departure from its often ambivalent or covert stance toward Taliban activities.
By crossing into Afghan soil to target militants, Pakistan appears intent on sending a clear warning: any future terrorist operations originating from Afghanistan targeting Pakistan will provoke direct retaliatory action.
This approach seeks to establish a new baseline in Pakistan-Taliban relations — a 'new normal' where Pakistan asserts its sovereignty and security interests proactively and visibly.
But analysts are perplexed over Pakistan's ultimate goal with this new hardline approach.
Are the strikes meant to push the Afghan Taliban into action against the TTP? or is there a bigger plan?
Going for regime change?
After the weekend clashes, Pakistan - for the first time - also questioned the legitimacy of the Taliban government, even though Islamabad was the movement's chief patron for a quarter of a century.
Pakistan demanded "concrete and verifiable actions against these terrorist elements by the Taliban regime".
Significantly, it declared: "We also hope that one day, the Afghan people would be emancipated, and they would be governed by a true representative government."
This was the first major hint that Pakistan might be open to the idea of throwing its support behind anti-Taliban groups if the current regime continues to ignore Pakistan's security concerns.
Echoes of India's post-Op Sindoor strategy
This escalating dynamic between Pakistan and the Taliban bears remarkable similarities to the India-Pakistan situation earlier in 2025.
In April, in response to a spate of terrorist attacks orchestrated by Pakistan-based groups, India launched Operation Sindoor. This was a surgical counter-terrorism campaign targeting terror camps across the Line of Control and deeper inside Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir.
After the operation, Prime Minister Narendra Modi made it clear that cross-border terrorism would no longer be tolerated, signaling a shift from reactive to proactive and offensive counterterrorism measures.
"Terrorism must be crushed at its roots," PM Modi emphasised in key speeches following the operation. He highlighted that India would no longer remain complacent or defensive but take the fight to terrorist safe havens across the border.
This was a stark departure from previous policies that relied primarily on defensive postures and diplomatic protests.
PM Modi's approach sought to create a deterrence framework, warning Pakistan that continued use of terror proxies would only invite more severe repercussions. The impact was significant, forcing Islamabad to recalibrate its own counterterrorism and diplomacy strategies, even if publicly denying Indian claims.
The Centre stressed that India would not hesitate to undertake "pre-emptive" action if future terrorist activities were launched from Pakistani soil. The message to Islamabad was unequivocal: Pakistan must dismantle terror infrastructure or face decisive consequences.
This tough stance surprised many, including Pakistan, which protested vehemently against what it termed India’s "cross-border aggression". Yet PM Modi's approach has widely been seen as a game-changer in South Asian security dynamics, raising the bar for how states respond to terrorism.
Pakistan changing playbook?
Analysts now speculate that Pakistan may be adopting a similar playbook in its handling of the Taliban.
For years, Pakistan's official policy towards the Taliban was one of implicit support or cautious engagement, given their ideological affinities and shared interests to some extent.
However, the recent strikes suggest Pakistan is recalibrating toward a more hardline posture that prioritises national security over ideological sympathies.
One key motivation behind this could be Pakistan's desire to secure its western border more effectively after years of instability and violent spillovers.
With the Taliban in power, Islamabad may see the need to assert dominance and clearly demarcate boundaries that opponents must not cross, even if it means direct military action inside Afghanistan.
This mirrors India's move to push back decisively against terrorism and assert territorial and security integrity.
The impact
If Pakistan truly adopts a stance akin to India's Operation Sindoor doctrine, the implications for regional security could be profound.
It indicates a shift from proxy or indirect conflicts toward more direct and overt military engagements aimed at deterrence. This may result in a recalibrated security architecture where Pakistan no longer tolerates Taliban aggression emanating from Afghan territory, just as India refuses to tolerate terrorism from Pakistan.
However, this approach also risks escalating tensions further. The border clashes have already resulted in casualties on both sides and threaten to spiral into a wider conflict if not managed carefully.
Can Pakistan sustain new approach?
Whether Pakistan can sustain this new posture against the Taliban depends on several factors.
Domestically, it will require strong military and political consensus to justify cross-border actions that risk escalating conflict. There are also challenges in controlling non-state actors within its own borders who may have sympathies with the Taliban or other militant groups.
Externally, Pakistan's relationship with the Taliban is complex, given their historic ties, shared ethnic Pashtun links, and mutual geopolitical interests, including countering Indian influence.
Moving toward a policy of strikes and retribution involves recalibrating these relationships and could alienate influential factions within Pakistan’s security establishment.
The ongoing clashes and Pakistan’s direct strikes raise critical questions about the trajectory of Pakistan-Taliban relations and broader Afghanistan stability. Will this 'new normal' lead to a more disciplined, deterrence-based approach to cross-border militancy? Or will it trigger cyclical escalation?
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